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OK, I looked at it again... Pulled that fuzzy carpet panel off the bottom of the hatch and checked out the inside with a flashlight...
There's no water stains on the inside of the carpet panel, so water just isn't coming in that way. The rust looked a lot less serious from the inside, only a slight bubble on the passenger side corner. Since the water's obviously coming on on the driver's side, I think the hatch isn't my immediate problem, though it will need to be replaced or repaired eventually, especially if I'm going to keep it parked outside for the foreseeable future.
I think I have a good old fashioned taillight leak on the driver's side. NBD, I guess.
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