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A friend of mine has the exact same design and tubing your using.
His car(s14) has the short ram intake where the filter sits behind the driver side headlight, and routed the "tube" from the brake duct/ bumper hole (next to the fog light) straight up to the filter. Seems to work fine and no problems with water or debris. I wouldn't suggest cutting your bumper for a that small amount of performance that you may not even notice. Just fabricate the tube to fit in the brake duct hole in the bumper, you could even use sheet metal to make a shroud.
Or go with the Injen cold air extension, it routes the piping and filter out of the engine bay so you won't have to deal with the heat it puts off.
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