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Originally Posted by 0100
america-end-marketwatch
I saw this coming more than a decade ago. It's pretty sad, because it will be our own doing Just like the roman empire, the US will collapse. Mark my words, come back to this post 20 years from now. Probably less. US is unfortunately done. Short treasuries and buy gold...
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Believe what you want.
Regardless of economic change, our primary determinant in our global power has not changed; if anything, it has actually increased.
The US Military and our Democracy based political system has ensure that we are the unchallenged world dominating power. Regardless of what San Francisco would like you to think the United States has been one of the most predisposed warrior nations since the British and Roman Empires. We have been in constant conflict. Look, even the Nobel Peace Prize winning “Change” Machine Obama is now dragging us into another war, and you can’t even blame the Republicans, Congress or the Public as he initially authorized Airstrikes without Congressional approval.
We started a war over Import Taxes and rebelled against England, we fought again with them, we fought with Mexico, killed off all the Indians, started to squabble with ourselves over regional culture, states’ rights and slavery and burned half the country in the most bloody war we’d ever fight. No sooner than the dust settled and we are off fighting with the Spanish and sending troops as far as the Philippines.
If you look at many of these wars, it wasn’t personnel interest or big business that drove the cause but actually the American People. Some bullshit stories in the media about bombing a ship in Cuba, an explosive leak about Zimmerman writing a note to Mexico or a Transport sinking with US Citizens on board… hell pirates capture a few citizens and we are off sending the Marines across the world to kill them.. No I’m not talking about Somalia or last week but actually the first Barbary War in 1801 and we wouldn’t finish with them, returning again in 1815.
It wasn’t Oil or Corporate greed that sent us to Somalia but the Black Congressional Caucus and an American Public screaming from images of suffering women and children shown on “just a cents a day” commercials. We didn’t make it a better place, in fact it’s worse than ever, actually we left as soon as “Black Hawk Down” happened because America again was upset that we wasted lives and money on a frivolous cause. There is no Oil in the former Yugoslavia and we have certainly done nothing to stop other civil wars in the former Soviet Union, so why save those Muslim Bosniaks, all they do is smuggle members of Alkida into Europe.
So bring this full circle, China is doomed. Their money is under inflated on purpose and every year the Chinese Government just absorbs and dissolves their own debt. It would be comparable to us just going “meh, National Debt is Zero, let’s start over”. They also have the other economic problem that is America is their number 1 consumer. Who else buys garbage like McDonald's Beanie Babies, Inflatable Santa lawn ordainment and Snuggies? Europeans sure as hell don’t stock up on this garbage, nor does anyone in Asia… their all to busy trying get enough money to pay for that 400sq/ft apartment let alone fill up a 2,000sq/ft house.
China will also face the same issue many other countries did (Mexico). The workers will begin to demand better wages and rights, and then labor rates will go from $5 a day to $1.75 an hour. Mexico at $2 an hour is global uncompetitive believe it or not. Sooner or later China will also before to deal with the environmental nightmare they have created for themselves and will start to do stuff like, oh National Parks, Clear Air and Water laws no more arsenic in powered milk, so forth. They will also have to start to recognize international copy rights once they begin to develop their own intellectual property, I don’t see Europe or China inventing IPads, Xboxes and software.
Lastly China is facing economic disparity that no one in America can begin to comprehend. On the Coast you have cities with people ranging from so rich they’d make Bill Gates cry to so poor they make the Homeless in LA laugh. But its even worse, as you in country toward the Euros, the poverty level is more comparable to life in the middle ages, with peasants still make their homes out of tunnels dug into the sides of hills. Not only does such poverty exist, but also China is quickly moving to do away with its original Communist ideas like Jobs for Life and healthcare. Under the old system you could work at a Government Farm or Plant till the day you keeled over, even if all you could do was push a broom by the time you reach 65. You also received “health care”, you know, transfusions from a massive vat of AIDS tainted blood or Cough syrup that is laced with Mercury. Not anymore, they throw you out on the street and say “good luck”.
Lastly, and most wonderfully, Ethnic Groups! Unlike America, where Race/Ethnicity is determined solely by the color of your skin, Black, White, Red, Brown; in the rest of the world they like to cut that pie a little thinner. Serbia and Montenegro are getting ready for another civil war as the region begins to face its first Census since the 1999 Civil War. Montenegro is hoping that most of its population will identify themselves as ethnically “Montenegro”, even though 40% consider themselves Serbian. What’s the difference you ask? Well it can’t be much if all it takes to be one or the other is what you call yourself. (Note Bosnians are Muslim, Croatians are Roman Catholic and Serbs are East Orthodox). China is home to over 75 distant (visually in many cases) ethnic groups that also are separated by religion, region and language. Not everyone speaks Mandarin in China, and if you ever visit you will quickly see how being a member of a particular group will determine your social class and opportunities within industry and the government. Good Luck being ethnically Mongolian or Tibetan and getting into Politics, and stay at home if you’re a Uyhgur (Chinese Muslims).
If the US truly topples and collapses into a complete economic meltdown where Americans are starving (please note, no one in American can starve unless they are mentally ill or are the victims of Abuse/Neglect) then you will quickly see the American people whipped into a further of Nationalism that Adolf could only have dreamed of. Just watch some of the Rallies our current President put on in last election. Chanting and Wailing, he created his own Party Logo and Banners and gave tear jerking grandiose speeches that spoke to the hearts and minds of America. After Wisconsin I can’t help but wonder if we are soon to see a “National Socialist American Workers Party” in the near future.
The world stood back in fear as Russia collapsed, in fact the US lead efforts to give Billions to fund programs to keep Russian scientists employed and prevent advanced technologies to make their way into the highest bidders hands. A US fall would be far more threatening, because unlike Russian and China, unlike anyone; we are able to project power to any area in the world. No other country and land and support entire Armies, fight coordinated battle efforts on multiple fronts, in multiple theaters across the global. Our Navy is unmatched, imagine an angry bitter America setting up maritime taxation, forcing anyone shipping container ships in the ocean to pay “protection fees” or demand they us US owned and crewed ships. Who would challenge us? Who could challenge us? Imagine if we undid or silly policy on “political assignation”. Instead of this drawn out BS game in Libya, we just shoved a Cruise Missile up Qaddafi ass? German Parliament, watch out, you better vote in our favor…. Predator drones could be lurking with Hellfire missiles! China, you better give us 5% of all your exports, or we’ll just confiscate all those ships.
Desperate times WILL cause desperate measures.
So my predictions?
Western Europe will continue to decay in their apathy. Poland will fight a war with Russia as Russia strives to reclaim its lost global dominance, this will cause NATO to finally dissolve as Poland is a NATO member and the rest of Europe will refuse to get involved. Poland will obliterate Russia’s military offense, having learned a great deal after serving with US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and striving to maintain a modern army. With low cost of labor, vast land and mineral resources, a stable government and educated population, Poland will begin picking up the manufacturing and development slack of the rest of Europe and grown to become the dominate power.
The Middle East will fall and with it, so will Global Islamic Terrorism. Iran will implode, as will Saudi Arabia. The region will also begin to run out of oil. The US will be forced to finally grow up and tap our own fuel resources as we have more oil than the entire Middle East. Russia will also pick up the slack as they have more oil then Saudi Arabia and Iran combined. China will implode from civil unrest and economic collapse. Korea will find its self the dominate power in the region, testy with China and Japan. We will see conflict there.
Conflict with India and Pakistan is inevitable, India will win. Turkey will quickly become the dominate Middle East nation and the leader in the region. They will find themselves apposing Poland putting the US in an awkward position. Brazil will also begin to become a world power and become a new rival to the US.