Global Warming Stopped?

[RJF]

http://www.newstatesman.com/scitech/...ng-temperature

Global warming stopped? Surely not. What heresy is this? Haven’t we been told that the science of global warming is settled beyond doubt and that all that’s left to the so-called sceptics is the odd errant glacier that refuses to melt?

Aren’t we told that if we don’t act now rising temperatures will render most of the surface of the Earth uninhabitable within our lifetimes? But as we digest these apocalyptic comments, read the recent IPCC’s Synthesis report that says climate change could become irreversible. Witness the drama at Bali as news emerges that something is not quite right in the global warming camp.

With only few days remaining in 2007, the indications are the global temperature for this year is the same as that for 2006 – there has been no warming over the 12 months.

But is this just a blip in the ever upward trend you may ask? No.

The fact is that the global temperature of 2007 is statistically the same as 2006 as well as every year since 2001. Global warming has, temporarily or permanently, ceased. Temperatures across the world are not increasing as they should according to the fundamental theory behind global warming – the greenhouse effect. Something else is happening and it is vital that we find out what or else we may spend hundreds of billions of pounds needlessly.

In principle the greenhouse effect is simple. Gases like carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere absorb outgoing infrared radiation from the earth’s surface causing some heat to be retained.

Consequently an increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases from human activities such as burning fossil fuels leads to an enhanced greenhouse effect. Thus the world warms, the climate changes and we are in trouble.
The evidence for this hypothesis is the well established physics of the greenhouse effect itself and the correlation of increasing global carbon dioxide concentration with rising global temperature. Carbon dioxide is clearly increasing in the Earth’s atmosphere. It’s a straight line upward. It is currently about 390 parts per million. Pre-industrial levels were about 285 ppm. Since 1960 when accurate annual measurements became more reliable it has increased steadily from about 315 ppm. If the greenhouse effect is working as we think then the Earth’s temperature will rise as the carbon dioxide levels increase.

But here it starts getting messy and, perhaps, a little inconvenient for some. Looking at the global temperatures as used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the UK’s Met Office and the IPCC (and indeed Al Gore) it’s apparent that there has been a sharp rise since about 1980.

The period 1980-98 was one of rapid warming – a temperature increase of about 0.5 degrees C (CO2 rose from 340ppm to 370ppm). But since then the global temperature has been flat (whilst the CO2 has relentlessly risen from 370ppm to 380ppm). This means that the global temperature today is about 0.3 deg less than it would have been had the rapid increase continued.

For the past decade the world has not warmed. Global warming has stopped. It’s not a viewpoint or a sceptic’s inaccuracy. It’s an observational fact. Clearly the world of the past 30 years is warmer than the previous decades and there is abundant evidence (in the northern hemisphere at least) that the world is responding to those elevated temperatures. But the evidence shows that global warming as such has ceased.

The explanation for the standstill has been attributed to aerosols in the atmosphere produced as a by-product of greenhouse gas emission and volcanic activity. They would have the effect of reflecting some of the incidental sunlight into space thereby reducing the greenhouse effect. Such an explanation was proposed to account for the global cooling observed between 1940 and 1978.

But things cannot be that simple. The fact that the global temperature has remained unchanged for a decade requires that the quantity of reflecting aerosols dumped put in our atmosphere must be increasing year on year at precisely the exact rate needed to offset the accumulating carbon dioxide that wants to drive the temperature higher. This precise balance seems highly unlikely. Other explanations have been proposed such as the ocean cooling effect of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

But they are also difficult to adjust so that they exactly compensate for the increasing upward temperature drag of rising CO2. So we are led to the conclusion that either the hypothesis of carbon dioxide induced global warming holds but its effects are being modified in what seems to be an improbable though not impossible way, or, and this really is heresy according to some, the working hypothesis does not stand the test of data.
It was a pity that the delegates at Bali didn’t discuss this or that the recent IPCC Synthesis report did not look in more detail at this recent warming standstill. Had it not occurred, or if the flatlining of temperature had occurred just five years earlier we would have no talk of global warming and perhaps, as happened in the 1970’s, we would fear a new Ice Age! Scientists and politicians talk of future projected temperature increases. But if the world has stopped warming what use these projections then?

Some media commentators say that the science of global warming is now beyond doubt and those who advocate alternative approaches or indeed modifications to the carbon dioxide greenhouse warming effect had lost the scientific argument. Not so.

Certainly the working hypothesis of CO2 induced global warming is a good one that stands on good physical principles but let us not pretend our understanding extends too far or that the working hypothesis is a sufficient explanation for what is going on.

I have heard it said, by scientists, journalists and politicians, that the time for argument is over and that further scientific debate only causes delay in action. But the wish to know exactly what is going on is independent of politics and scientists must never bend their desire for knowledge to any political cause, however noble.

The science is fascinating, the ramifications profound, but we are fools if we think we have a sufficient understanding of such a complicated system as the Earth’s atmosphere’s interaction with sunlight to decide. We know far less than many think we do or would like you to think we do. We must explain why global warming has stopped.

David Whitehosue was BBC Science Correspondent 1988–1998, Science Editor BBC News Online 1998–2006 and the 2004 European Internet Journalist of the Year. He has a doctorate in astrophysics and is the author of The Sun: A Biography (John Wiley, 2005).] His website is www.davidwhitehouse.com

[DOOK]

[rps13drift]

^^^Nice! +1



I got this shirt! You should see the looks on peoples faces when they read it and understand the picture! LOL!

[Team Aero-K]

what do you guys thinks of the year 2012? where the Mayan calendar stops

[DOOK]

Originally Posted by Team Aero-K

what do you guys thinks of the year 2012? where the Mayan calendar stops

same thing I thought about the year 2000 and everyone was pulling their money out of the bank and buying new cars thinking all the computer records would be lost...

it's all stupid.

[S14DB]

No one knows enough about global climate trends to make any worthy analysis. We have only had good data for only 100 years and this rock we live on has been around for how long? Everyone forgets that the Dark Ages were due to a global cooling and the Renaissance was when temperatures rose.

Originally Posted by Team Aero-K

what do you guys thinks of the year 2012? where the Mayan calendar stops

You are thinking of a misinterpretation of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar by José Argüelles. No Mayanist scholar will touch him or that BS with a 10ft pole.

[Team Aero-K]

Originally Posted by S14DB

You are thinking of a misinterpretation of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar by José Argüelles. No Mayanist scholar will touch him or that BS with a 10ft pole.

Understood.....but I know for a fact that scientist are stating on Dec 21st, 2012 all planets in our solar sytems is going to line up in a perfect line with the sun.....

things might get weird but you can never know until it happens right!

[S14DB]

Originally Posted by Team Aero-K

Understood.....but I know for a fact that scientist are stating on Dec 21st, 2012 all planets in our solar sytems is going to line up in a perfect line with the sun.....

things might get weird but you can never know until it happens right!

No, they won't. You misread. The earth will line up with the plane of the milky way. The fact that the winter solstice on 2012 is "aligned" with the plane of the Galaxy has no significance.

1. It takes the winter solstice 700-1400 years to cross the plane of the Galaxy.
2. The solstice last year (2005) was within 0.1 degrees (or 1/5th the size of the Sun) of where it will be on 2012.
3. The Sun crosses the plane of the Milky Way twice every year with no ill effect.

[DohcKA]

very interesting article...

[SR240DET]

http://zilvia.net/f/showthread.php?t=185778

more info^

[Mi Beardo es Loco]

we will prevail.
[ame]http://youtube.com/watch?v=oEp382HIisE[/ame]

[WIKID S4TEEN]

Originally Posted by DOOK

everyone was pulling their money out of the bank and buying new cars thinking all the computer records would be lost...

it's all stupid.

LOL, I know a guy that quit years of schooling,
1 yr just B4 graduating...!!!
After 2000 he moved out to the boonies, never heard from him...

[BOROSUN]

its also our sun is expanding so, eventually earth will endup like venus. a dried up planet.

[awesomenick]

I bet if they keep jacking up gas prices it could put a dent in pollution, maybe slow down global warming. Haha. People who are broke like me will be forced to ride bikes, or walk. Lately I've been using LOTS of public transportation. The toys have been sitting in the driveway.

[Mi Beardo es Loco]

Originally Posted by BOROSUN

its also our sun is expanding so, eventually earth will endup like venus. a dried up planet.

eventually as in 2billion years?

[Mi Beardo es Loco]

Originally Posted by awesomenick

I bet if they keep jacking up gas prices it could put a dent in pollution, maybe slow down global warming. Haha. People who are broke like me will be forced to ride bikes, or walk. Lately I've been using LOTS of public transportation. The toys have been sitting in the driveway.

honestly, I think that's what it's going to evolve into. gas powered vehicles are going to be used for sport and alternative fuel or electric cars are going to be daily drivers. If fuel doesn't go down, it's just not feasible for the middle class to travel daily.jj

[awesomenick]

That's how I feel too. My girlfriend lives about 60 miles away from me. Until this year I could afford to drive over to her house whenever I wanted to, but that's changed. Luckily they just finished a train that goes roughly in between our houses. I only have to drive about 13 miles to get to her house now. I don't mind riding the train anyways, I can read or do whatever. I don't have to concentrate on driving.

Hopefully they make some sweet new advances on electric cars.

[Mi Beardo es Loco]

Originally Posted by awesomenick

That's how I feel too. My girlfriend lives about 60 miles away from me. Until this year I could afford to drive over to her house whenever I wanted to, but that's changed. Luckily they just finished a train that goes roughly in between our houses. I only have to drive about 13 miles to get to her house now. I don't mind riding the train anyways, I can read or do whatever. I don't have to concentrate on driving.

Hopefully they make some sweet new advances on electric cars.

well, mitsubishi has developed a hybrid motor that gets over 400whp with 30+ mpg. The trick is making it reliable and affordable, neither of which they have come close to. Maybe electric car tuning or hybrid tuning is where the money is going to be at in 10 years, who knows?

[awesomenick]

Maybe I should start messing with that instead of my cars. Haha. Make one of my cars electric.

[mRclARK1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

Now it's just the same thing, except now we're getting "warmer"

Just like with that as well, the media tells you there is scientific consensus, so you believe there is, when in reality there is not.

On one hand a lot of these global warming supporters will say "Weather patterns on earth go in cycles of hundreds if not thousands of years" Then when questioned how in a roughly 50-60 year period of reliable data they can state accurately that global warming is, in fact, happening? They say it's all about previous weather patterns etc.

Not to mention the big culprit the whole time has been CO2 emissions, of which a large percent is naturally occurring (For example: You breath it out) and ultimately vital to earth's survival (Trees and plants need CO2 for photosynthesis, which helps them to produce oxygen. So saving the rainforest? Yeah... THAT IS a GOOD idea). However, lots of the supporters of global warming are calling for outright bans on CO2 emissions. I had a student in one of my classes, a geology major no less, say after we were forced to watch Al Gore's documentary, that "CO2 emissions should be completely eliminated if possible, even natural ones if we can"



Also, when I say forced to watch, I mean forced. We had questions about it on the exam, and had to sign a sheet saying we were present. If not? We lost 5% on our overall final mark in the class.

I asked if we would watch any of the several scientifically backed videos and documentaries that presented a case against global warming. The answer was literally and only this: "No"

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for taking care of the enviroment, alternative fuels (electric car? That would be awesome!!) and reducing pollution and conservation of resources. But I'm also for honesty and integrity of what the scientific community presents as "fact". This is just being shoved down peoples throats, heading towards a scenario of "believe because we said so or else...." We're being treated like children.

It's nice to see some more weight coming out against it.

[canuckster240]

hehe i think its jus ta big scam to make money or government and corporations hello carbon taxes BUUUUULLLLSHITttt. I am a person who cares for people, environment, etc.... but this is nothing but a scam.

It's funny how zilvia's advertisment had this just on it now:

[renegade_ewok]

Steven Colbert I think made a succinct point...

He started "believing" in global warming after it made millions at the box office.

[Team Aero-K]

Originally Posted by S14DB

No, they won't. You misread. The earth will line up with the plane of the milky way. The fact that the winter solstice on 2012 is "aligned" with the plane of the Galaxy has no significance.

1. It takes the winter solstice 700-1400 years to cross the plane of the Galaxy.
2. The solstice last year (2005) was within 0.1 degrees (or 1/5th the size of the Sun) of where it will be on 2012.
3. The Sun crosses the plane of the Milky Way twice every year with no ill effect.

haha...thanks for correcting my dumbass....I just read a few article on what will happen and your completely right, maybe i was to stoned when i read it and my mind was on a different level....hahahaha j/p


and

that WaterWorld trailer.....amazing....lol I haven't seen that movie in ages!