The Age of China

[0100]

america-end-marketwatch

I saw this coming more than a decade ago. It's pretty sad, because it will be our own doing Just like the roman empire, the US will collapse. Mark my words, come back to this post 20 years from now. Probably less. US is unfortunately done. Short treasuries and buy gold...

[Gnnr]

Its late so I will read the whole thing later, but how is this news? China has already surpassed the US economy a long long time ago. They just devalue their currency so it looks like it hasn't.

[0100]

You don't need to read it. You already know what is written, but most people don't. It's not a pretty picture for the US at all.

[lawrenceyang]

thought about moving outta country awhile ago. would be sad to leave =(

[Gnnr]

Bleh, economy and stuff is not that peachy in Europe either, so its whatever....

[getagrip]

I wouldn't mind leaving at all. The only things keeping me here are my family, friends and how I would comfortably make money elsewhere. For the time being its not "that" bad here.

But I can see the economy declining based on my dads work output along with just observing the general population with their unemployment and how difficult it seems to be for some to find work in the first place.

For me things are alright, but I know it wont stay like this forever.

[ronmcdon]

Well according to the article, my impression is that China will surpass the US economy by 2016, and replace the US as the worlds economic hegemony, or something like that.

While it's not a promising (but not entirely unsurprising) sign, I don't see anything inherently devastating about that. Article also says that the US surpassed England's economic dominance in 1890, and has remained so since. Just like it wasn't the end of the world for England in 1890, likewise it won't be the end of the world for the US in 2016.

I think the economy is a concern. I would just be more interested in improving things here than comparing ourselves (USA) to other countries.
The article has a lot of theoretical points, but I'm not convinced it presents any practical concerns. Most Americans probably just want the economy to improve, unemployment to reduce, maybe prevent the dollar's value from dropping (which I feel politicians and the fed have failed to address). Whether our GDP stats are up to par with China lacks practical value imo.

[getagrip]

Originally Posted by ronmcdon

Well according to the article, my impression is that China will surpass the US economy by 2016, and replace the US as the worlds economic hegemony, or something like that.

While it's not a promising (but not entirely unsurprising) sign, I don't see anything inherently devastating about that. Article also says that the US surpassed England's economic dominance in 1890, and has remained so since. Just like it wasn't the end of the world for England in 1890, likewise it won't be the end of the world for the US in 2016.

I think the economy is a concern. I would just be more interested in improving things here than comparing ourselves (USA) to other countries.

I agree with this. Just because we will be surpassed doesn't mean we will completely fall apart. We just wont be numero uno anymore.

[lawrenceyang]

hmm just out of curiosity i looked up highest gpa per capita and the US decimates china. you have to take in account all the people in china that live a rural life which skews the statistic considerably downward but i suppose the US isnt so bad. and like a couple people said before me all the forecasts suggest is that we just wont be top dog anymore, not that were heading towards economic oblivion. now THAT being said the current economy is pretty shitastic here -_____- terribly difficult to find employment even with a degree

p.s. the real golden age of china http://china.mrdonn.org/tang.html

[sw20>>s14]

id hate to say it, but i think whats contributing to this downward spiral is everyones negative outlook...people really dont understand that this despondent attitude is highly contagious and nothing more than a disservice to progress...things could be A LOT worse...just step back and imagine how much and what we actually rebounded from in the last few years...

so were not the head hancho anymore, big deal...being number one isnt the most important, being number one at what your good at IS! let other burgeoning nations flourish, itll benefit us too you know...

either way, its no surprise at all...if china doesnt top the list soon (which is HIGHLY unlikely), brazil, russia, or india will...this is not the age of china, its the age of BRIC...get ready...

[lok]

4000 year old civilization.

My wife is from Hong Kong, all else fails, move back there and stay with her parents.

[0100]

I could care less about being top dog. Shit... in my mind we haven't been top dog for awhile, maybe on paper, but not in the real world. We are in a big time downward spiral, caused by outsourcing, our government, monetary policy, etc etc. Even we the people are causing the USA to sink into the abyss. I know I probably have more made in china tools then made in USA tools. I should have bought more craftsman instead of harbor freight, oh wait, craftsman is made in china too. Oh and don't think I have something against china. I think china is great and they obviously know what they are doing. I have spent 2 months there and probably have more old school kung fu flicks then everyone on zilvia combined. The people and country are great. It's just sad to see the ugly path the US is on.

[dudermagee]

Well it was a good what 50 year run, too bad corrupt politicians, big business, and too many hand outs to the poor ruined it for everyone.
Wonder how long China will last, how far we will fall, and if china will want to start something (war).

[0100]

Yeah I think WWIII is inevitable at some point. I don't see it happening in the short term, but down the road I definitely see things getting ugly.

[exitspeed]

Originally Posted by ronmcdon

Well according to the article, my impression is that China will surpass the US economy by 2016, and replace the US as the worlds economic hegemony, or something like that.

While it's not a promising (but not entirely unsurprising) sign, I don't see anything inherently devastating about that. Article also says that the US surpassed England's economic dominance in 1890, and has remained so since. Just like it wasn't the end of the world for England in 1890, likewise it won't be the end of the world for the US in 2016.

I think the economy is a concern. I would just be more interested in improving things here than comparing ourselves (USA) to other countries.
The article has a lot of theoretical points, but I'm not convinced it presents any practical concerns. Most Americans probably just want the economy to improve, unemployment to reduce, maybe prevent the dollar's value from dropping (which I feel politicians and the fed have failed to address). Whether our GDP stats are up to par with China lacks practical value imo.

Originally Posted by lawrenceyang

hmm just out of curiosity i looked up highest gpa per capita and the US decimates china. you have to take in account all the people in china that live a rural life which skews the statistic considerably downward but i suppose the US isnt so bad. and like a couple people said before me all the forecasts suggest is that we just wont be top dog anymore, not that were heading towards economic oblivion. now THAT being said the current economy is pretty shitastic here -_____- terribly difficult to find employment even with a degree

p.s. the real golden age of china Tang Dynasty, the Golden Age of China - Ancient China for Kids

Originally Posted by sw20>>s14

id hate to say it, but i think whats contributing to this downward spiral is everyones negative outlook...people really dont understand that this despondent attitude is highly contagious and nothing more than a disservice to progress...things could be A LOT worse...just step back and imagine how much and what we actually rebounded from in the last few years...

so were not the head hancho anymore, big deal...being number one isnt the most important, being number one at what your good at IS! let other burgeoning nations flourish, itll benefit us too you know...

either way, its no surprise at all...if china doesnt top the list soon (which is HIGHLY unlikely), brazil, russia, or india will...this is not the age of china, its the age of BRIC...get ready...

I agree with all of this.

I am concerned about our economy, but I don't expect our country to turn into the backdrop of the next Fallout game.

I am an optimist though.

[0100]

You know what, I take it back, it does piss me off that we are officially 2nd. Maybe it's just because I am a very competitive person, whether it's at the tack, in the ring, or just playing a video game, I want to be 1st. I want the USA to be first, and it sucks that so many people just don't give a fuck anymore. This is (was) such a great nation and I seriously see it going down the tubes, and it sucks!

I love how I post this and most peoples reaction is meh so we are second now whatever. No one gets amped up, like damn we really need to fix our shit and fast.

Ah well let's just sit back and see where this ride takes us, that always works.

[SinGarage]

Originally Posted by 0100

You know what, I take it back, it does piss me off that we are officially 2nd. Maybe it's just because I am a very competitive person, whether it's at the tack, in the ring, or just playing a video game, I want to be 1st. I want the USA to be first, and it sucks that so many people just don't give a fuck anymore. This is (was) such a great nation and I seriously see it going down the tubes, and it sucks!

I love how I post this and most peoples reaction is meh so we are second now whatever. No one gets amped up, like damn we really need to fix our shit and fast.

Ah well let's just sit back and see where this ride takes us, that always works.

I pretty much agree with everything you said. What a lot of people don't understand is how economic works but once you do, you will see why we are in this situation. The problem is people in the US want things that are "cheaper". Raw material does not really differentiate much in price but labor does. We will never be able to beat China in labor as cost of living there is cheaper plus people there are willing to work shitty jobs and in shitty conditions. It’s because either there isn’t any work available to them or they don’t have the education to get a better job. Work ethics are also different between USA and smaller nations. I think the only thing left that is not being outsourced is weapons. Weapons on a mass destruction scale type weapons. You ever notice that we sell our outdated junk to smaller nations?

I work in the semiconductor industry for the last 15 years. I have worked both in the commercial and military/aerospace industry. US customers would build their prototypes here and once the design has been proven, shipped off to China for mass production. In a business perspective, it makes sense. Their profit margin would be bigger and prices would be lower offered to consumers. It’s a win-win situation…in the short run. In the long run, well this is where we are at now, will be #2 in 5 years.

[Silverbullet]

WWIII is unlikely IMO. Times have changed. It is easier to communicate and deligate with people across teh world now a days. As long as all major countries share the same goals, we're more likely to reach the goal by working together. There are still countries out there are are still a bit erratic (caused by lack of modern developed society), mostly in the Middle East, Africa, and possibly southern Asia

Future wars will be more world govts vs private terrorist organizations, rather than govt vs other govts.

[0100]

Times have not change and never will change. When was the last war? Let just pretend the last war was 50 years ago. That is a drop in the bucket on the time line. Oh wait my brother is sitting over in Afghanistan right now. Trust me there will be a WWIII at some point. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. War unfortunately can and will happen (past, present, and even 10000 years from now in galactic space).

[0100]

For the fun of it let's list some empires that have fallen.

Egyptian
Persian
Greek
Chinese
Roman
British
Russian

Yeah the USA is way smarter than them, we are good.........

[Matej]

America is too preoccupied with being politically correct, 'freedom,' and affirmative action, while everyone else is working on getting ahead.

[dudermagee]

Originally Posted by Matej

America is too preoccupied with being politically correct, 'freedom,' and affirmative action, while everyone else is working on getting ahead.

you sir, are my hero

[Dirty Habit]

Originally Posted by Matej

America is too preoccupied with being politically correct, 'freedom,' and affirmative action, while everyone else is working on getting ahead.

You should check out peoples rights in china...

[ronmcdon]

Originally Posted by Dirty Habit

You should check out peoples rights in china...

True, but there has to be some balance between the extremes.

[D1champ]

GDP as an economic indicator has several flaws and fallacies that skew results. The previous used GNP was more accurate. Also, neither take into account non-monetary factors such as quality of life, degradation of natural environments and pollutions affect on humans and wildlife. It will be good for the US Empire to fall just as all other empire failures were positive when you look at the big picture and the long term. Had they modeled the US after Byzantium (eastern roman empire)...it lasted over a 1000 years (306AD-1453AD) they might still be in good shape today.

[flip3d]

Obama doesn't have a birth certificate.

lawl.

[gearhead55]

Historically speaking, the United States is a flash in the pan. We have only really been the top dog since the end of WWII, and that is really not that long ago. Low regulation of markets leads to dramatic boom and bust cycles, and our history seems to be one big series of boom and busts.

I have heard that in China they teach their children that the era of the dominance of the US will be short lived, and sadly, i think they are correct.

On a positive note i think that we as a nation have contributed an unprecedented amount of technology and social development to the world, which i am proud of. As much bad as this country has done to the world, i think we have done an equal amount of good.

also i think it is kind of cool that although our dominance has been short, the effect that the US has had on the culture of the world is also unprecedented in history.

[imotion s14]

Originally Posted by gearhead55

Low regulation of markets leads to dramatic boom and bust cycles, and our history seems to be one big series of boom and busts.

Yes all we need is more regulation, we're only 1 regulation away from defeating the business cycle.

The soviet economy had 100% regulation and they never had a recession.

[dudermagee]

I've said this a few times to some friends but what we need to do is:
1. Pull out of all the foreign countries
2. stop giving them money
3. focus on our infrastructure
4. tax imports as other countries do to ours
5. get rid of tax loop holes for big business
6. Get rid of illegal immigrants
7. focus on drug war in mexico
8. withdraw from NAFTA
9. build closer ties with mexico, move production from china to there
10. possibly from NAU with Mexico, Canada, and US
11. Stop doing business with China, until they play fair

[Corbic]

Originally Posted by dudermagee

7. focus on drug war in mexico
8. withdraw from NAFTA
9. build closer ties with mexico, move production from china to there

The Drug war in Mexico is not our problem. Its the corrupt, inept Mexican Governments problem.

Why would you move production to Mexico as industry is moving out of it? The country is unstable, lacks infrastructure and has a dismal workforce. The workers down there are simply culturally unprepared for modern industries.

Any facility built there has had nothing but issues with short term production runs as the plants are unable to rotate tooling and shift processes fast and effective enough.

Build a wall and be done with it.