The Age of China

[lawrenceyang]

Originally Posted by raz0rbladez909

Maybe then we can stop wasting our money helping every other poor ass country out and let China take care of that bullshit. I don't know if you guys will agree but knowing that a large amount of our tax money goes towards rebuilding/helping/free-ing other countries versus fixing many of our own problems really is upsetting. There is so many countries that don't get involved in stuff that doesn't concern them, yet we are the first ones to always have to get involved in everyone elses business. I think Libya is one of the first times we haven't jumped right into something before anyone else.

id say a bigger amount of tax money goes into occupying other countries and creating more problems for ourselves than actually helping other countries

[raz0rbladez909]

Originally Posted by lawrenceyang

id say a bigger amount of tax money goes into occupying other countries and creating more problems for ourselves than actually helping other countries

Believe me I agree with this as well, just didn't really come up with it at the time

[imotion s14]

Originally Posted by gearhead55

Low regulation of markets leads to dramatic boom and bust cycles, and our history seems to be one big series of boom and busts.

Yes all we need is more regulation, we're only 1 regulation away from defeating the business cycle.

The soviet economy had 100% regulation and they never had a recession.

[dudermagee]

I've said this a few times to some friends but what we need to do is:
1. Pull out of all the foreign countries
2. stop giving them money
3. focus on our infrastructure
4. tax imports as other countries do to ours
5. get rid of tax loop holes for big business
6. Get rid of illegal immigrants
7. focus on drug war in mexico
8. withdraw from NAFTA
9. build closer ties with mexico, move production from china to there
10. possibly from NAU with Mexico, Canada, and US
11. Stop doing business with China, until they play fair

[imotion s14]

I like how you list withdrawing from NAFTA but then want to form a NAU when NAFTA would be the stepping stone to forming an economic bloc.

[dudermagee]

Originally Posted by imotion s14

I like how you list withdrawing from NAFTA but then want to form a NAU when NAFTA would be the stepping stone to forming an economic bloc.

Thats because NAFTA only benefits the wealthy and corporate empires, and fucked Mexican farmers.
An NAU would form economic and government ties.
It would also make our border alot smaller.........

[tricky_ab]

Might want to start learning Mandarin then...Surprised it took this long. You have over a billion people and work them like ants yet the US still surpasses you in almost every way.

Seriously though people here are acting like they are going to be living on the streets when and if China surpasses America.

Oh and...

China census shows population aging rapidly - World news - Asia-Pacific - China - msnbc.com

[gearhead55]

Originally Posted by imotion s14

Yes all we need is more regulation, we're only 1 regulation away from defeating the business cycle.

The soviet economy had 100% regulation and they never had a recession.

Your sarcasm isn't funny or helpful. Regulation is absolutely necessary for a stable economy, its just a matter of balance. Obviously there will always be economic cycles, but big boom and busts should be avoided.

And no, "the soviet economy" never had 100% regulation. No economy has or ever has had 100% regulation. Its easy to think in the black and white terms of "no regulation is good, regulation is bad", but thats not the way the world works. There will always be a give and take, and dogmatic views about the need for government involvement solve absolutely nothing. If people were more realistic the conversation would be much more productive.

[HalveBlue]

Gee, the world's most populous country is projected to become the world's largest economy.

Who woulda ever thunk it?

This article raises more questions than it answers. I wouldn't jump ship just yet, though this situation does warrant paying attention to.

China is still largely reliant on foreign capital investments. All the cheap shit China produces, it produces for foreign companies, who in turn sell those products in their respective markets (mostly centered around the "First World" economies).

[Corbic]

Originally Posted by 0100

america-end-marketwatch

I saw this coming more than a decade ago. It's pretty sad, because it will be our own doing Just like the roman empire, the US will collapse. Mark my words, come back to this post 20 years from now. Probably less. US is unfortunately done. Short treasuries and buy gold...

Believe what you want.



Regardless of economic change, our primary determinant in our global power has not changed; if anything, it has actually increased.

The US Military and our Democracy based political system has ensure that we are the unchallenged world dominating power. Regardless of what San Francisco would like you to think the United States has been one of the most predisposed warrior nations since the British and Roman Empires. We have been in constant conflict. Look, even the Nobel Peace Prize winning “Change” Machine Obama is now dragging us into another war, and you can’t even blame the Republicans, Congress or the Public as he initially authorized Airstrikes without Congressional approval.



We started a war over Import Taxes and rebelled against England, we fought again with them, we fought with Mexico, killed off all the Indians, started to squabble with ourselves over regional culture, states’ rights and slavery and burned half the country in the most bloody war we’d ever fight. No sooner than the dust settled and we are off fighting with the Spanish and sending troops as far as the Philippines.



If you look at many of these wars, it wasn’t personnel interest or big business that drove the cause but actually the American People. Some bullshit stories in the media about bombing a ship in Cuba, an explosive leak about Zimmerman writing a note to Mexico or a Transport sinking with US Citizens on board… hell pirates capture a few citizens and we are off sending the Marines across the world to kill them.. No I’m not talking about Somalia or last week but actually the first Barbary War in 1801 and we wouldn’t finish with them, returning again in 1815.



It wasn’t Oil or Corporate greed that sent us to Somalia but the Black Congressional Caucus and an American Public screaming from images of suffering women and children shown on “just a cents a day” commercials. We didn’t make it a better place, in fact it’s worse than ever, actually we left as soon as “Black Hawk Down” happened because America again was upset that we wasted lives and money on a frivolous cause. There is no Oil in the former Yugoslavia and we have certainly done nothing to stop other civil wars in the former Soviet Union, so why save those Muslim Bosniaks, all they do is smuggle members of Alkida into Europe.



So bring this full circle, China is doomed. Their money is under inflated on purpose and every year the Chinese Government just absorbs and dissolves their own debt. It would be comparable to us just going “meh, National Debt is Zero, let’s start over”. They also have the other economic problem that is America is their number 1 consumer. Who else buys garbage like McDonald's Beanie Babies, Inflatable Santa lawn ordainment and Snuggies? Europeans sure as hell don’t stock up on this garbage, nor does anyone in Asia… their all to busy trying get enough money to pay for that 400sq/ft apartment let alone fill up a 2,000sq/ft house.



China will also face the same issue many other countries did (Mexico). The workers will begin to demand better wages and rights, and then labor rates will go from $5 a day to $1.75 an hour. Mexico at $2 an hour is global uncompetitive believe it or not. Sooner or later China will also before to deal with the environmental nightmare they have created for themselves and will start to do stuff like, oh National Parks, Clear Air and Water laws no more arsenic in powered milk, so forth. They will also have to start to recognize international copy rights once they begin to develop their own intellectual property, I don’t see Europe or China inventing IPads, Xboxes and software.



Lastly China is facing economic disparity that no one in America can begin to comprehend. On the Coast you have cities with people ranging from so rich they’d make Bill Gates cry to so poor they make the Homeless in LA laugh. But its even worse, as you in country toward the Euros, the poverty level is more comparable to life in the middle ages, with peasants still make their homes out of tunnels dug into the sides of hills. Not only does such poverty exist, but also China is quickly moving to do away with its original Communist ideas like Jobs for Life and healthcare. Under the old system you could work at a Government Farm or Plant till the day you keeled over, even if all you could do was push a broom by the time you reach 65. You also received “health care”, you know, transfusions from a massive vat of AIDS tainted blood or Cough syrup that is laced with Mercury. Not anymore, they throw you out on the street and say “good luck”.



Lastly, and most wonderfully, Ethnic Groups! Unlike America, where Race/Ethnicity is determined solely by the color of your skin, Black, White, Red, Brown; in the rest of the world they like to cut that pie a little thinner. Serbia and Montenegro are getting ready for another civil war as the region begins to face its first Census since the 1999 Civil War. Montenegro is hoping that most of its population will identify themselves as ethnically “Montenegro”, even though 40% consider themselves Serbian. What’s the difference you ask? Well it can’t be much if all it takes to be one or the other is what you call yourself. (Note Bosnians are Muslim, Croatians are Roman Catholic and Serbs are East Orthodox). China is home to over 75 distant (visually in many cases) ethnic groups that also are separated by religion, region and language. Not everyone speaks Mandarin in China, and if you ever visit you will quickly see how being a member of a particular group will determine your social class and opportunities within industry and the government. Good Luck being ethnically Mongolian or Tibetan and getting into Politics, and stay at home if you’re a Uyhgur (Chinese Muslims).



If the US truly topples and collapses into a complete economic meltdown where Americans are starving (please note, no one in American can starve unless they are mentally ill or are the victims of Abuse/Neglect) then you will quickly see the American people whipped into a further of Nationalism that Adolf could only have dreamed of. Just watch some of the Rallies our current President put on in last election. Chanting and Wailing, he created his own Party Logo and Banners and gave tear jerking grandiose speeches that spoke to the hearts and minds of America. After Wisconsin I can’t help but wonder if we are soon to see a “National Socialist American Workers Party” in the near future.



The world stood back in fear as Russia collapsed, in fact the US lead efforts to give Billions to fund programs to keep Russian scientists employed and prevent advanced technologies to make their way into the highest bidders hands. A US fall would be far more threatening, because unlike Russian and China, unlike anyone; we are able to project power to any area in the world. No other country and land and support entire Armies, fight coordinated battle efforts on multiple fronts, in multiple theaters across the global. Our Navy is unmatched, imagine an angry bitter America setting up maritime taxation, forcing anyone shipping container ships in the ocean to pay “protection fees” or demand they us US owned and crewed ships. Who would challenge us? Who could challenge us? Imagine if we undid or silly policy on “political assignation”. Instead of this drawn out BS game in Libya, we just shoved a Cruise Missile up Qaddafi ass? German Parliament, watch out, you better vote in our favor…. Predator drones could be lurking with Hellfire missiles! China, you better give us 5% of all your exports, or we’ll just confiscate all those ships.



Desperate times WILL cause desperate measures.



So my predictions?



Western Europe will continue to decay in their apathy. Poland will fight a war with Russia as Russia strives to reclaim its lost global dominance, this will cause NATO to finally dissolve as Poland is a NATO member and the rest of Europe will refuse to get involved. Poland will obliterate Russia’s military offense, having learned a great deal after serving with US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and striving to maintain a modern army. With low cost of labor, vast land and mineral resources, a stable government and educated population, Poland will begin picking up the manufacturing and development slack of the rest of Europe and grown to become the dominate power.



The Middle East will fall and with it, so will Global Islamic Terrorism. Iran will implode, as will Saudi Arabia. The region will also begin to run out of oil. The US will be forced to finally grow up and tap our own fuel resources as we have more oil than the entire Middle East. Russia will also pick up the slack as they have more oil then Saudi Arabia and Iran combined. China will implode from civil unrest and economic collapse. Korea will find its self the dominate power in the region, testy with China and Japan. We will see conflict there.



Conflict with India and Pakistan is inevitable, India will win. Turkey will quickly become the dominate Middle East nation and the leader in the region. They will find themselves apposing Poland putting the US in an awkward position. Brazil will also begin to become a world power and become a new rival to the US.

[2slow2go]

i think the thing about china that keeps them going is death penalty for most crimes. keeps everyone in check and work towards the good

[Pro ViZIon]

that was an awesome read.

I love this thread lol.

[Corbic]

Originally Posted by dudermagee

7. focus on drug war in mexico
8. withdraw from NAFTA
9. build closer ties with mexico, move production from china to there

The Drug war in Mexico is not our problem. Its the corrupt, inept Mexican Governments problem.

Why would you move production to Mexico as industry is moving out of it? The country is unstable, lacks infrastructure and has a dismal workforce. The workers down there are simply culturally unprepared for modern industries.

Any facility built there has had nothing but issues with short term production runs as the plants are unable to rotate tooling and shift processes fast and effective enough.

Build a wall and be done with it.

[imotion s14]

Originally Posted by gearhead55

Your sarcasm isn't funny or helpful.

Neither is your head-in-the-sand optimism that government can cure all economic ills if we just pass a law.

Regulation is absolutely necessary for a stable economy,

You can say the Soviet economy was stable in it's stagnation.

its just a matter of balance.

And who exactly gets to decide this arbitrary balance?

Obviously there will always be economic cycles, but big boom and busts should be avoided.

First you say we can achieve economic stability, now your admitting the boom and bust cycles is unavoidable.

How do you think the housing boom got started? Where did all that credit come from? it surely wasn't from American savings. Had nothing at all to do with the Fed lowering interest rates to 1% in response to the internet bubble. And the minute they start raising rates the bubble starts to burst. That has nothing to do with it at all.

And no, "the soviet economy" never had 100% regulation. No economy has or ever has had 100% regulation.

There was no private ownership of means of production, no capital markets, no entrepreneurs directing capital. The central planners of the Soviet Union had 100% control of the "output" of the Soviet economy.

Its easy to think in the black and white terms of "no regulation is good, regulation is bad", but thats not the way the world works.

You're the only one thinking in terms of black and white. In your black and white world the government has perfect information and thus can stop boom and bust cycle because they can predict the future and apply regulations with accurate foresight.

There will always be a give and take, and dogmatic views about the need for government involvement solve absolutely nothing. If people were more realistic the conversation would be much more productive.

I'm not the one who has a dogmatic view that government sticking it's nose into the market fixes everything. The economy is too dynamic for any 1 smart man or 100 really smart men. If we could do all that then we wouldn't need a market as we'd have a 100% efficient economy and can direct resource without making mistakes.

[gearhead55]

Originally Posted by imotion s14

Neither is your head-in-the-sand optimism that government can cure all economic ills if we just pass a law.

I don't have any unfounded optimism at all. I have never stated that 'government can cure all economic ills' and i don't think that that is true at all.

Originally Posted by imotion s14

You can say the Soviet economy was stable in it's stagnation.

sure you can, what does that have anything to do with the current conversation?

Originally Posted by imotion s14

And who exactly gets to decide this arbitrary balance?

The citizens of the united states, preferably after logical deliberation over the possible choices.

Originally Posted by imotion s14

First you say we can achieve economic stability, now your admitting the boom and bust cycles is unavoidable.

No i never said we can achieve economic stability, i said that regulation helps manage boom and bust cycles and increase stability.

Originally Posted by imotion s14

How do you think the housing boom got started? Where did all that credit come from? it surely wasn't from American savings. Had nothing at all to do with the Fed lowering interest rates to 1% in response to the internet bubble. And the minute they start raising rates the bubble starts to burst. That has nothing to do with it at all.

Again you are arguing against an extreme position that i am not presenting. I am not arguing that over-regulation is any less detrimental than under-regulation. I am arguing there is a continuum of positions on the subject and dogmatic views from either perspective are not beneficial to the conversation.

Originally Posted by imotion s14

There was no private ownership of means of production, no capital markets, no entrepreneurs directing capital. The central planners of the Soviet Union had 100% control of the "output" of the Soviet economy.

If you think that the post WWII soviet government had complete control over the production of crops and import/export from the country then you obviously haven't read enough about the history. The ideas that a country is founded on and the way that country actually operates are two different things.

Originally Posted by imotion s14

You're the only one thinking in terms of black and white. In your black and white world the government has perfect information and thus can stop boom and bust cycle because they can predict the future and apply regulations with accurate foresight.

I never said anything like that at all. Everything i have said was regarding the need for a balance between under-regulation and over-regulation.

Originally Posted by imotion s14

I'm not the one who has a dogmatic view that government sticking it's nose into the market fixes everything. The economy is too dynamic for any 1 smart man or 100 really smart men. If we could do all that then we wouldn't need a market as we'd have a 100% efficient economy and can direct resource without making mistakes.

AGAIN, i never said that the government fixes everything. I have only been saying exactly what your last statement sarcastically said; the world is a complicated place. I believe that in order to benefit the most as a society we must find a balance between over and under regulation of markets. Unless we abandon extreme views like the ones you appear to hold and the ones you mistakenly apply to me then we wont get over this bullshit...

['97 S14 SE Turbo]

Here's the scary part, having spend 4 years living and working in China, has really opened up my eyes.

The following is the mindset of both country in a nutshell.

Mindset in US: Fun, sex, sports, food, sex, beer, vacation, medication, etc

Mindset in China: Money, money, money, money, money, sex, etc

With that in mind, considering if that mind set applies for 70% of the population, that's still 980 mil people making profit their primary objectives. That's still triple the population of US. And, considering the latest statistics that 1/5 of American's are on welfare, that' leaves ~304 mil that actually work, and lets just say only 50% are actively seeking to better themselves, that's only 150mil people.

US cannot win by number alone...

PS: For Trekkies, just think of the Chinese as Farrengis... It's all about the profit.

[upsdude]

^well...if you think about it america's mindset was the same as china's (money money money), but what's the first thing you do when you have more money? "Fun, sex, sports, food, sex, beer, vacation, medication, etc." it's only natural that when you have more money you're going to spoil yourself more...which is why we've become a consumer nation as opposed to a nation that makes stuff. we don't make stuff anymore-not like we used to at least. but hey it was a good run while it lasted, you can't be on top forever and eventually china will be surpassed by someone else.

[ronmcdon]

Originally Posted by '97 S14 SE Turbo

Here's the scary part, having spend 4 years living and working in China, has really opened up my eyes.

The following is the mindset of both country in a nutshell.

Mindset in US: Fun, sex, sports, food, sex, beer, vacation, medication, etc

Mindset in China: Money, money, money, money, money, sex, etc

With that in mind, considering if that mind set applies for 70% of the population, that's still 980 mil people making profit their primary objectives. That's still triple the population of US. And, considering the latest statistics that 1/5 of American's are on welfare, that' leaves ~304 mil that actually work, and lets just say only 50% are actively seeking to better themselves, that's only 150mil people.

US cannot win by number alone...

PS: For Trekkies, just think of the Chinese as Farrengis... It's all about the profit.

I've lived in Hong Kong for ten years, plus work in a company that works with Chinese factories.
I would be inclined to say you're spot on with Chinese culture (in mainland China & Hong Kong at least).

The culture is extremely driven to money making and materialism. It is not easy to compete economically with a culture that's driven by mainly it. It is partially also why their manufacturing plants and ability to work with international businesses are so capable.

The problem with China, however, is still their government & it's insecure need to call the shots, need for censorship, etc that sometimes impedes on business interests and at times discourages foreign investors (i.e. Google). If they would just ease up a bit more on their authoritarian rule, they would have a lot more potential. Nobody is really entirely comfortable working with such a politically fickle country. The duties/quotas of Chinese imports placed from goods entering the US (and likely other markets) aren't helping much either.

['97 S14 SE Turbo]

Actually, their government is the biggest profit driven organization there. As long as there is money to be made by the government or by the official, they will love to talk business.

But if the profit is to be shipped overseas to a foreign entity, that's when all the redtape comes up.

The government over there is really business friendly. For example, in SZ, if you were able to file a technology patent, the local government will provide a location for a startup business, rent free for a year. What that does is to help build up the economy. They are smart enough to recognize that an economy is build upon wealth creation/value added manufacturing.

What the typical US government's reaction to business is sickening... Definitely not a business friendly environment.

[kingkilburn]

Just a quick question here.

What happens to China when they can no longer maintain their currency's low value and balance of trade?

What happens to America when China can no longer produce goods for it at such a low price?

[HalveBlue]

Originally Posted by kingkilburn

What happens to America when China can no longer produce goods for it at such a low price?

Easy. They'll move production to other countries, like Vietnam, or Indonesia, or Turkey, or some other country where labor costs are low.

[Corbic]

Originally Posted by HalveBlue

Easy. They'll move production to other countries, like Vietnam, or Indonesia, or Turkey, or some other country where labor costs are low.

China has already begun to outsource to Vietnam.

[kingkilburn]

Sounds to me like China is the one on the brink of economic disaster.

Their economy is held together through artificially cheap labor. Once something upsets that they are left with nothing but agriculture. I don't know about you but I like my food to not have toxic waste and plastic fillers.

[Mikey213]

Cyclical is one of my favorite words

['97 S14 SE Turbo]

Originally Posted by HalveBlue

Easy. They'll move production to other countries, like Vietnam, or Indonesia, or Turkey, or some other country where labor costs are low.

Actually they have plans to transform into a consumer market and develop other consumer markets.

Why do you think they have been friendly with many African nations, spending tons of money, helping spur development. It's a win-win situation for China, developing new supply source/labor, market, etc...

[NINJASPY]

^I've seen it been done,, they move production to smaller towns were farming is #1 and working at the plant pays more, so they are pretty much owned by the business. Work, Rent, and Eat, at the same facilities, owned by one entity.

I lived in Guangzhou a few years ago... they decided to outlaw ALL motorcycles for traffic reasons. For many it was their lively hood... so after the new year, they were either confiscated or forced to move to rural areas. All the confiscated bikes where then sold to a smaller city and BOOM all of the sudden they have all these machines/motorcycles to help fuel that smaller city's economy.

Do you guys know about the 88 year lease rule?? When you buy a house, you don't own the land. You lease it out for 88 years from the gov't. When a property reaches near the 88 year mark, its worth next to nothing, and gov't gets it back only to resell it at 100% profit,, every 88years.

[tricky_ab]

Originally Posted by NINJASPY

^I've seen it been done,, they move production to smaller towns were farming is #1 and working at the plant pays more, so they are pretty much owned by the business. Work, Rent, and Eat, at the same facilities, owned by one entity.

I lived in Guangzhou a few years ago... they decided to outlaw ALL motorcycles for traffic reasons. For many it was their lively hood... so after the new year, they were either confiscated or forced to move to rural areas. All the confiscated bikes where then sold to a smaller city and BOOM all of the sudden they have all these machines/motorcycles to help fuel that smaller city's economy.

Do you guys know about the 88 year lease rule?? When you buy a house, you don't own the land. You lease it out for 88 years from the gov't. When a property reaches near the 88 year mark, its worth next to nothing, and gov't gets it back only to resell it at 100% profit,, every 88years.

Wait...wait WHAT?!!?

[upsdude]

lol not every country is like america where you have an opportunity to own property. honestly america is a great place to live-why do you think people keep wanting to immigrate, or even sneak in here? the problem is who's in charge.

['97 S14 SE Turbo]

Many countries, you don't own the land, but a deed of entitlement to use the land/lease the land.

As for the 88 year lease, well, by the time you get your property, it's down to ~60 years of use from government speed, land development, etc. You are entitled to "re-lease" that same property after the time is up. Not forced to sell it back to the government. Trust me, my father and I own apartments in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and ChengDu.

It's not as terrible in execution as people tend to believe. One thing though, farmers do own their land. They are now the defacto "elites". In places like Shenzhen, those that owned the land, because they can't sell it, lease it out to foreign multinational companies that build factories and other stuff. So, these folks, just sit around all day collecting huge rental income...

[upsdude]

does the chinese govt in turn take it all since it's a communist regime?